Tony Downs writes an essay in the latest National Real Estate
Investor magazine titled, "Where will future development occur?"
While there are many obstacles to present development - serious
overbuilding in the decade past comes to mind, future growth
will come. A major factor, as Downs says, "is the sheer size of
future population growth. The Census Bureau projects the
population will grow by 55 million from 2010 to 2030, compared
with 58 million from 1990 to 2010." That is a lot more folks.
As Downs notes, commercial development will always follow
the residential growth.
Downs believes that urban planners want a "strategy of densifying
existing metropolitan areas and making them more walkable".
Downs believes that is a fantasy, and concludes his essay with:
"These realities mean that future commercial real estate
development will arise slowly and will still consist mainly of out-
ward expansion at metropolitan fringes rather than a radical shift
to walkability, public transit, high density, and mainly infill
The reader will understand my happiness at reading this- our
fair city qualifies as a "metropolitan fringe". Can't wait.
Full essay here