Friday, August 20, 2010

Bill McBride and his fabulous charts...............

The thesis is simple.  Less then six months inventory of
available houses to be bought- prices go up.  More than six
months inventory of available houses to be bought- prices go
down.  McBride's blog is CalculatedRisk. His brief essay on
the thesis is here.

We are currently experiencing a +/- 12  month inventory of
houses available for purchase.  Prices most likely will continue to
trend lower.  The spike upward in pricing earlier this year, which
would seem to defy the thesis, is most likely the result of the
government's now expired tax credit program

The black line represents pricing.  The blue line represents
inventory.  Pretty interesting correlation, here:


No comments:

Post a Comment