In March of 2008, the former chief economist for the National
Association of Realtors was quoted as saying,
"People think the market is down and the market will
still go down. That's not the truth. The market is down,
but it's not going down anymore."
"I think it's because consumers focus on national news
and not enough on local news."
In April of 2009, Tuccillo said,
"Yes, knowledge is power, but increasingly in a world
where we are told far more than we need to know,
knowledge is fear. Take the swine flu affair. A virulent
disease which is ripping its way through Mexico is being
played as if the Apocalypse is upon us. Yet, in the United
States, a country where vaccines and drugs are readily
available to blunt the symptoms of the disease, there
have been only a handful of cases. On this basis, the
price of airline stocks dip, oil prices go down and there
is a widespread belief that our friend the pig will bring
down the whole world economy.
The handling of this story by the media is intended to make
us very, very afraid. But so was the media handling of the
real estate cycle, and so it still is. We are coming out of a
severe downturn in the real estate market, a price we are
paying for a ten year expansion. These things happen,
sometimes gently, sometimes harshly. The reporting of this
story has ignored how cycles operated, focused on prices
rather than sales and made a hero out of Bob Shiller, an
economist-entrepreneur who is attempting to profit from a
futures market that has yet to get off the ground. And we
are being taught to be very, very afraid.
Pretty sure I disagree with that "knowledge is fear" quote. Pretty
sure I agree with the "price we are paying for a ten year
This punditry stuff is a tough business.