Saturday, September 11, 2010

Whither go housing prices...............?

Our friends at Keeping Current Matters believe that the time
to sell is now because that old supply/demand thing will be
increasingly putting downward pressure on prices. Full essay here.

If you have followed this blog, you might be inclined to think that
I concur.  You would be correct.  Housing prices have no where
to go but down.  The question is......how far is down?

First, some historical data put together by the Case-Shiller folks
and charted by Bill McBride at Calculated Risk.














The bad news is that clicking on the image may not increase
it to readable scale.  The good new is that if you go here,
the image will be enlargeable.

I do not read these charts for a living, but it sure looks like
that by January of 2010 housing values had retreated from
early 2006 highs to approximately the level of housing
values in mid-2003.

If we met at a cocktail party and you insisted that I opine
on where housing values are going to bottom out, I would
tell you that I don't have a clue.  If you were persistent, got
me another drink, and really, really insisted, I would cluelessly
tell you that, in my unsupported and unscientific opinion,
housing values are headed back to January 2000 pricing levels. 
If you foolishly got me another drink, I might tell you that we will
not see housing values back at the January 2006 level in the next
twenty years.

There, I said it.  Sorry.

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