Beware the forecaster..............

The bedrock lesson here is as old as time: The future — not all of it, but much of it — is too complex to be predicted. There are too many moving parts; too much is unknown; people wrongly think the future will resemble the past; they don’t foresee political, economic and technological change.

-culled from this Robert J. Samuelson essay, "Why Economists Can't Forecast"

thanks craig