Tuesday, January 27, 2026

Fifty years ago.......................


      Boz Scaggs...........................Lowdown

 


found.....................

 

The Master gave his teaching in parables and stories, which his disciples listened to with pleasure—and occasional frustration, for they longed for something deeper.

The Master was unmoved.  To all their objections he would say, "You have yet to understand, my dears, that the shortest distance between a human being and the Truth is a story."

Another time he said, "Do not despise the story.  A lost gold coin is found by means of a penny candle; the deepest truth is found by means of a simple story."

-Anthony de Mello, One Minute Wisdom


Buy the coffee...................

 

It's the cliche that refuses to die: Personal finance nag Suze Orman warned investors that if they "waste money on coffee, it's like peeing $1 million down the drain.

     I disagree.  If the difference between success and failure is the cost of a cup of coffee, you have much bigger financial problems.  A daily $5 latte does not amount to much in the grand scheme of life. . . .

     Here is what really gets me annoyed: Orman tells her audience that "Your Daily Coffee Habit is Costing You $1 Million," with this calculation:   Let's say you spent around $100 on coffee each month.  If you were to put that $100 into a Roth IRA instead, after 40 years the money would have grown to around $1 million with a 12% rate of return.

     Nope.  This calculation is nonsense, and worse, it is intellectually dishonest.  The actual real numbers are almost 75% less. . . . So, 12% annual returns for 40 years?  That's 50% better than the markets give you.  I literally have $5 billion for anyone who can get my clients fat 12% returns annually for the next 40 years.

-Barry Ritholtz,  How Not To Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth—And How To Avoid Them


stories...............

 

How do we learn the difference between willfulness and willingness, the distinction between magic and miracle?  The answer will come as no surprise: in the practice and process of storylistening and storytelling.  "Story," the novelist John Gardner observed, "details the gap between intentions and results."  Story conveys the reality of human freedom, for although "real," our freedom is limited, and although "limited," our freedom is real.  To live with an awareness of story is to recognize, with philosopher Alasdair MacIntyre, that "We are never more than the co-authors of our own stories."

     Every story details a mixture of what Niccolò Machiavelli named necessità, virtù, and fortuna: cause, choice, and chance.  The very combination of the three reveals that we are neither completely controlled nor completely in control.  We can will, in other words, but we must also be willing.  This can be a difficult, even painful lesson to accept, for we tend to want "either-or," especially in matters of being "controlled" or "in control."  Accepting the impossibility of this willful demand—becoming willing to accept the limited freedom that is ours—is one gift of story.  Stories reveal a spirituality that views life not as a problem to be solved, but as a mystery to be lived. . . .

. . . We find miracle only when we stop looking for magic.

-Kurtz and Ketcham, The Spirituality of Imperfection: Storytelling and the Search for Meaning

      

Control.......................

 



focus....................

 











via

Ah, history......................

 

     Raskob—a hero to the business community and a villain to much of the political establishment and public—planned to use the private dinner to set the record straight; he had no plans to resign from his role as chair of the Democratic National Committee, despite his friend Smith's brutal loss to Hoover.  Instead, Raskob was doubling down:  He planned to promise that he would get the party's finances in order and use his own fortune—estimated to be as much as $500 million—to underwrite the party's fight against Hoover.  That was what the dinner was really about; he wanted the Democrats to spend the next four years single-mindedly and relentlessly attacking Hoover with everything they had.

     Raskob saw his role—and his immense wealth—as the country's most vital counterweight to Hoover.  He believed his money could be used as a political weapon: a way to obstruct the president's agenda, weaken his standing, and ensure he would be a one-term leader.  Raskob considered Hoover a sanctimonious bureaucrat whose meddling and moralizing stood in stark contrast to his own bold, unapologetic faith in capitalism and risk.  But it was more than that, too.  This was deeply personal.  Raskob was not a man accustomed to losing, and his friend's defeat stung.  If Raskob had his way, the Democratic Party would become a well-financed engine of opposition, and a Democrat would be in the White House by 1932.

-Andrew Ross Sorkin, 1929: Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street History—And How It Shattered a Nation


Monday, January 26, 2026

Who would have guessed...........

 

Markets generally work, but occasionally they break down.  When they do, they require government intervention to provide the public good of stability.

  This position is widely at variance with the views at either of two extremes: that financial and commodity markets work perfectly in all times and places, or that they always work badly and should be replaced by planning or governmental assignments.  On the contrary, I contend that markets work well on the whole, and can normally be relied upon to decide the allocation of resources and, within limits, the distribution of income, but that occasionally markets will be overwhelmed and need help.  The dilemma, of course, is that if markets know in advance that help is forthcoming under generous dispensations, they break down more frequently and function less effectively.

-Charles P. Kindleberger, Manias, Panics, and Crashes: A History of Financial Crises


Fifty years ago.........................


Hot Chocolate....................You Sexy Thing

 


Checking in.............................

 

...................................Rudyard Kipling:


The individual has always had to struggle to keep from being overwhelmed by the tribe. To be your own man is a hard business. If you try it, you'll be lonely often, and sometimes frightened. But no price is too high to pay for the privilege of owning yourself.

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 If you don’t get what you want, it’s a sign either that you did not seriously want it, or that you tried to bargain over the price.

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Everyone is more or less mad on one point.

-------------------------------------

If you can dream—and not make dreams your master;
If you can think—and not make thoughts your aim;
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster
And treat those two imposters just the same

--------------------------------------

Fiction is Truth's elder sister. Obviously. No one in the world knew what truth was till some one had told a story.

--------------------------------------

Words are, of course, the most powerful drug used by mankind.

-------------------------------------

I keep six honest serving-men:
(They taught me all I knew)
Their names are What and Where and When
And How and Why and Who.

------------------------------------

A people always ends by resembling its shadow.

------------------------------------

Asia is not going to be civilised after the methods of the West. There is too much Asia and she is too old.

-----------------------------------

Many religious people are deeply suspicious. They seem—for purely religious purposes, of course—to know more about iniquity than the unregenerate.


the detailed complexity............

 

     When we say that human behavior is unpredictable, we are right because it is too complex to be predicted, especially by ourselves.  Our intense sensation of interior liberty, as Spinoza acutely saw, comes from the fact that the ideas and images that we have of ourselves are much cruder and sketchier than the detailed complexity of what is happening within us.  We are the source of amazement in our own eyes.

-Carlo Rovelli, Seven Brief Lessons on Physics


keep going.....................

 

It does not matter how slowly you go, so long as you do not stop.

-attributed to Confucius

----------------------------------------

The Master said, The case is like that of someone raising a mound.  If he stops working, the fact that it perhaps needed only one more basketful makes no difference; I stay where I am.  Whereas even if he has not got beyond leveling the ground, but is still at work, the fact that he has tilted one basketful of earth makes no difference.  I go to help him.

-Confucius, Analects, Book 9, Verse 18


on processes..................

 

     The key to focusing more on process is to understand that good outcomes follow good processes.  Without understanding the underlying process, good outcomes could just as likely be due to dumb luck as to skill.

     You should be reminded of this every time you read the disclaimer "past performance is no guarantee of future results."  What you are actually seeing is an admission of random outcomes.  When past performance is the result of luck, then it provides zero insight into what future results might look like.

-Barry Ritholtz, How Not To Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth—And How To Avoid Them


And all shall be well...............

 

If you came this way, Taking any route, starting from anywhere, At any time or at any season, It would always be the same: you would have to put off Sense and notion. You are not here to verify, Instruct yourself, or inform curiosity Or carry report. You are here to kneel . . .

We shall not cease from exploration And the end of all our exploring Will be to arrive where we started And know the place for the first time.

-Henry Miller, as lifted from Little Gidding


Sunday, January 25, 2026

Fifty years ago (re-issue)....................

 
  Aerosmith................................Dream On

 


not ours..................

 

     The problem with "willing what cannot be willed" is that we step into a territory that is not  ours—we stake the claim to be God.  This attempt to wrest control from the uncontrollable has become the keynote characteristic of our "Age of Addiction."  We try to command those aspects of our lives that cannot be commanded, we try to coerce what cannot be coerced, and in doing so, we ironically destroy the very thing we crave.

-Kurtz and Ketcham, The Spirituality of Imperfection: Storytelling and the Search for Meaning


counsel.........................


     My soul preached to me and said, "Do not be delighted because of praise, and do not be distressed because of blame."

     Ere my soul counselled me, I doubted the worth of my work.

     Now I realize that the trees blossom in Spring and bear fruit in Summer without seeking praise; and they drop their leaves in Autumn and become naked in Winter without fearing blame.

Kahlil Gibran, Thoughts and Mediations

 

For the love of peanut butter...........

 

“Probably my natural attraction to the eternal verities.”


Getting some weather.................

 



Among the things I never knew...........

 

If demography is destiny, the Atlantic Slave Trade transformed the destiny of the entire Western Hemisphere.  Between 1500 and 1800, five times as many Africans as Europeans were carried to the New World.  Thanks largely to the recent work of British historians, who have created a digital database that provides the most accurate account ever assembled of the African diaspora, we now know much more precisely the scale and size of the Atlantic Slave Trade and where the enslaved Africans ended up.

     Between 1550 and 1860, European vessels embarked with 12.5 million African captives and landed 10.7 million in the New World.*  During the notorious Middle Passage, 1.8 million enslaved Africans died from some combination of disease, malnutrition, mistreatment, and suicide.  Of the 10.7 million survivors, 4.8 million went to South America, 4.7 million went to the Caribbean, 800,000 went to Central America, and 400,000 went to North America.  (An additional 60,000 entered North America indirectly from the British West Indies.)   In effect, only a small percentage of the enslaved Africans, about 4%, were deposited in the future United States.

     As a result, the Southern Hemisphere was destined to become a multiracial society including a population with African origins.  The Northern Hemisphere was destined to become a predominately white society with a substantial African minority.

*Another African diaspora in the other direction was occurring at the same time, even larger than the Atlantic Slave Trade.  Between fourteen and sixteen million Africans were carried east, across the Sahara, over the Red Sea and Indian Ocean.  Africa was plundered from the west by Christians and from the east by Muslims.

-Joseph J. Ellis, The Great Contradiction: The Tragic Side of the American Founding


The world has always been messy................

 

The aging Sultan Abdülhamid II convened his cabinet in a crisis session on 23 July 1908.  The autocratic monarch faced the greatest domestic threat to his rule in over three decades on the throne.  The Ottoman army in Macedonia—that volatile Balkan region straddling the modern states of Greece, Bulgaria, and Macedonia—had risen in rebellion, demanding the restoration of the 1876 constitution and a return to parliamentary rule.  The sultan knew the contents of the constitution better than his opponents.  One of his first measures on ascending the Ottoman throne in 1876 had been to promulgate the constitution as the culmination of four decades of government-led reforms known as the Tanzimat.  In those days he was seen as an enlightened reformer.  But the experience of ruling the Ottoman Empire had hardened Abdülhamid from reformer into absolutist.

-Eugene Rogan, The Fall of the Ottomans: The Great War in the Middle East


Yep................

 

     The process of buying books can be a bit hit-and-miss.  I've had my share of misses. . . .

     I look at two things: the contents page and the introduction.  The former gives me a sense of the breadth and depth of the book, and from the latter I get a better understanding of the author's motivations for writing the book, as well as their style.  If I find myself nodding along at the introduction, I'll read a couple of pages from the start and skim through a few more in the middle to get the overall vibe.

     Ultimately, I listen to my feelings.  It's the most straight-forward approach.

-Hwang Bo-Reum, Every Day I Read: 53 Ways to Get Closer to Books


Saturday, January 24, 2026

In countdown mode...............

 



Personal.................................

 

......................................................stagflation.

via


Love.........................

 

........................................is paramount.


The most amazing 20 minutes in rock........


Queen..........................................1985 Live Aid

 


On nostalgia...................


I have a theory about nostalgia: It happens because the best survival strategy in an uncertain world is to overworry. When you look back, you forget about all the things you worried about that never came true. So life appears better in the past because in hindsight there wasn’t as much to worry about as you were actually worrying about at the time.

-Morgan Housel, from here

Whenever the discussion turns to how good the good-old-days were, my mind turns to 1968, my junior year in high school.  Antiwar protests and riots. President Lyndon Johnson stops his reelection campaign. Martin Luther King assassination, followed by riots all over the country.  Bobby Kennedy assassinated.  It was a brutal year.  The history major in me knows that there have been many brutal years.  Not sure I am buying his theory.  Would be my guess is that nostalgia is more about missing old friends and relationships, but that's just a guess.


Really good advice.........

 















Un......No............














Work can be part of your financial independence. Like other aspects of your financial plan, you just need some rules in place to guide your actions so it doesn’t become all-consuming.

Here are some work rules I would institute in this situation:

  • The no assholes rule. Only work with people you like and respect.
  • The no stress rule. Don’t keep working if it stresses you out all the time. You’re not wealthy if your work causes constant worry and anxiety.
  • The no rule. Financial independence should make it easier to say no to invitations, projects, and events you don’t want to do. When you’re younger sometimes you have to suck it up. That shouldn’t be the case when you’re working by choice.
  • The no regrets rule. Don’t keep working if it makes you miss out on family stuff. No one ever says I wish I would have worked longer hours on their deathbed.
-Ben Carlson, from here


Any Major Dude with Half A Heart.....

 

......................................................tackles 1986.


Friday, January 23, 2026

Unclenching....................

 

Unclenching into life demands that we relax in the midst of the uncertainty and insecurity, because “in the midst of the uncertainty and insecurity” is where we always are. The reward is the aliveness, agency and sense of purchase on life that comes from no longer pretending otherwise.

-Oliver Burkeman, from here


And comparison is a great source................

 

......................................of unhappiness.

Compete externally and you compare.
Compete internally and you improve.
-James Clear, from here

In the background............


The Grateful Dead......................Ripple

 


If my words did glow with the gold of sunshineAnd my tunes were played on the harp unstrungWould you hear my voice come through the music?Would you hold it near as it were your own?
It's a hand-me-down, the thoughts are brokenPerhaps they're better left unsungI don't know, don't really careLet there be songs to fill the air
Ripple in still waterWhen there is no pebble tossedNor wind to blow
Reach out your hand, if your cup be emptyIf your cup is full, may it be againLet it be known there is a fountainThat was not made by the hands of men
There is a road, no simple highwayBetween the dawn and the dark of nightAnd if you go, no one may followThat path is for your steps alone
Ripple in still waterWhen there is no pebble tossedNor wind to blow
You who choose to lead must followBut if you fall you fall aloneIf you should stand then who's to guide you?If I knew the way I would take you home

-Hunter/Garcia

self-determination..............

 

My life improved dramatically when I stopped sacrificing myself in an effort to meet the narratives that other people had about me.

-Sahil Bloom, from today's episode


The Spirit of Dialogue...................

 

My long-standing contrarian rule is that the Davos consensus is always wrong.

-Niall Ferguson


Embracing uncertainty................

 

The nature of discoveries is that they are unexpected: they may not fit neatly into our existing edifice of knowledge. Although the research may be originally motivated by a perceived gap, the knowledge resulting from the discovery may in fact not complete any part of the wall but instead may lead to the construction of a completely new and unexpected area: we may be forced to build a new wall orthogonal to the first, or even to tear down parts of the existing structure. This is an uncomfortable concept for many of us, who would prefer a tidy and beautiful universe, where a rational process helps us to illuminate the world. And yet, the most interesting unknowns of science are unknown unknowns—gaps that we were not even aware of before chancing upon them.

-Itai Yanai and Martin Lercher.

via the wide wide world of Tim Ferriss


Damn him.......................

 

Apparently my plan to not buy any new books for a while will have to be shelved.  Michael Wade posits the need for laugher therapy - "Laughter repels the trolls".  Hard to argue.

Ed. Note:  the Salinger entry on the list is a puzzler.  It has been a very long time, may need to re-read it.


Sunday, January 18, 2026

In the background.................


Creedence Clearwater Revival.............Best of

 


New books in 2026.................

 

..........Adam Grant has an interesting list.  Having said that, methinks the focus for 2026 will be on the old, unread, books already on the bookshelves.


the controllable variable.............

 

The only controllable variable in any situation is you. Oddly, it’s the last one people adjust.

-Shane Parrish, from this edition


on finding the truth...................


 I’m increasingly convinced that the willingness to change your mind is the ultimate sign of intelligence. The most impressive people I know change their minds often in response to new information. It’s like a software update. The goal isn't to be right. It's to find the truth.

-Sahil Bloom, from here


Still..........................

 

.........one of the most powerful letters ever written.


About those good intentions............

 

Good intentions will always be pleaded for every assumption of authority. It is hardly too strong to say that the Constitution was made to guard the people against the dangers of good intentions.

-Daniel Webster, as culled from here


The most important......................

 

......................................word for any day.


They'd say you're a good man....................

 

Then again . . . I can’t help but try to resurrect all the ancestors — the ancients of days — who I’m sure would have birthed the same or similar thoughts bearing on the time left to them, and the speed with which life slipped through their fingers.

And I’d wonder what they’d say to me . . . ?

-Julian Summerhayes, from here