Are you ready for the 2020 presidential campaign?

.........Althouse has the story.  I'm looking for a hiding place.

On the dissipation of certainty............

“But so long as men are not trained to withhold judgment in the absence of evidence, they will be led astray by cocksure prophets, and it is likely that their leaders will be either ignorant fanatics or dishonest charlatans. To endure uncertainty is difficult, but so are most of the other virtues. For the learning of every virtue there is an appropriate discipline, and for the learning of suspended judgment the best discipline is philosophy.

“But if philosophy is to serve a positive purpose, it must not teach mere skepticism, for, while the dogmatist is harmful, the skeptic is useless. Dogmatism and skepticism are both, in a sense, absolute philosophies; one is certain of knowing, the other of not knowing. What philosophy should dissipate is certainty, whether of knowledge or of ignorance.”

-Bertrand Russell, as culled from his essay,  Philosophy For Laymen

Certain.........................

Greet................................

     I will greet this day with love in my heart.
     And how will I do this?  Henceforth will I look on all things with love and I will be born again.  I will love the sun for it warms my bones; yet I will love the rain for it cleanses my spirit.  I will love the light for it shows me the way; yet I will love the darkness for it shows me the stars.  I will welcome happiness for it enlarges my heart;  yet I will endure sadness for it opens my soul.  I will acknowledge rewards for they are my due; yet I will welcome obstacles for they are my challenge.
     I will great this day with love in my heart.

-Og Mandino,  The Greatest Salesman In The World

Opening paragraphs...............

     Charles Bukowski was an alcoholic, a womanizer, a chronic gambler, a lout, a cheapskate, a deadbeat, and on his worst days, a poet.  He's probably the last person on earth you would ever look to for life advice or expect to see in any sort of self-help book.
     Which is why he's the perfect place to start.

-Mark Manson,  The Subtle Art of Not Giving A F*uck:  A Counterintuitive Approach To Living A Good Life

On switching to lobster..............

listen, he said, you ever seen a bunch of crabs in a 
bucket? 
no, I told him.
well, what happens is that now and then one crab
will climb up on top of the others
and begin to climb toward the top of the bucket,
then, just as he's about to escape
another crab grabs him and pulls him back
down.
really? I asked.
really, he said, and this job is just like that, none
of the others want anybody to get out of 
here. that's just the way it is
in the postal service! 
I believe you, I said.
just then the supervisor walked up and said,
you fellows were talking.
there is no talking allowed on this
job.
I had been there for eleven and one-half
years.
I got up off my stool and climbed right up the 
supervisor
and then I reached up and pulled myself right
out of there.
it was so easy it was unbelievable.
but none of the others followed me.
and after that, whenever I had crab legs
I thought about that place.
I must have thought about that place
maybe 5 or 6 times
before I switched to lobster. 

-Charles Bukowski,   The Great Escape

Fifty years ago...........................

Eddie Floyd..I've Never Found A Girl (To Love Me Like You Do)

I really like Ben Carlson...............

....If you aren't reading his blog, well, feel free to start now.   Here is a for instance of his common sensical thinking:

5. There isn’t just one reason. Narratives about what caused the market correction can be fun to argue about but there’s never just one reason for something like this. The president or the Fed or the tariffs or algorithmic trading strategies or the month of December or Taylor Swift’s deafening silence on the trade war didn’t cause this downturn.

Markets are made up of millions of investors, all with different goals, objectives, time horizons, risk profiles, and temperaments. No one person or office or investment strategy can control these millions of moving parts.

The poet Frank Bidart once wrote, “Insanity is the insistence of meaning.” He may have been talking about the movements of the stock market.

I'm sure this means something.........

Animals here......Feel free to tell me what that means.

via

One of the firm ground rules...................

.............around here is to pay attention to Michael Wade.

So many opportunities to learn.......

"One of my proofs of a loving God, is in the provision of catastrophes, especially those man-made through lapses of prudence. We learn from experience. Or we don’t learn, in which case we have the benefit of catastrophe, again. One generation replaces another, and perhaps we never learn; but the potential is always there."

-Richard Warren, from this anti-bot post

Checking in with Steinmetz..............

"There are no foolish questions and no man becomes a fool until he has stopped asking questions."

"In this country all a man need to do is to attain a little eminence and immediately he begins to talk. Usually his eminence is financial, and the greater this eminence the more he talks and the further his voice reaches. I don't blame the rich people for talking; many of them don’t know what else to do with themselves. The fault is with these who listen. If no one would listen no harm would he done. But the American people are willing to listen to any one who has attained prominence. The main fact is that we've heard a man's name a great many times; that makes us ready to accept whatever he says. … We listen to the one who talks the most and loudest."

-Charles Proteus Steinmetz, 1865-1923

Fifty years ago.............................

Glen Campbell................................................Wichita Lineman

Communications......................

    thanks sean

On coincidences.......

"The most astonishingly incredible coincidence imaginable would be the complete absence of all coincidences."

-John Allen Paulos

Concerted action.........................

     The quality of your "concerted action in the marketplace" is really dominated by the force, or lack thereof, of your intention.  Most people think that intention just means saying, "I'll do my best."  When people say that to me, I run a mile.  "I'll do my best," is the mind's way of saying,  "I'll trot out there and play around doing busy work for an hour or two, and when the project doesn't succeed or realize its full potential, I'll be okay because I have my excuse already pinned on the wall."
    Your mind is your best friend, but it's also an enemy.  Not only because it has a vested interest in limiting what you believe you can do, but also because it has a way of selling you short.   Isn't it interesting that whenever a group of people set out to develop a project, that project usually falls short of everyone's expectations?  In real life, things never quite pan out the way one thinks they ought to.  Why is that?  Because the ego-personality is happy to spend four hours in a meeting talking about building apartments on the beach, but it isn't at all happy spending eight hours actually hauling cement or delivering sales pitches to prospective buyers.   Imagination and "concerted action" live in different neighborhoods.

-Stuart Wilde,  The Trick to Money Is Having Some

While............................

17.   Live not as though there were a thousand years ahead of you.  Fate is at your elbow;  make yourself good while life and power are still yours.

-Marcus Aurelius,  Meditations, Book 4

Leaning............................

     Several years ago, after one of my talks, a man came up to me and said, "All this 'lean on God' stuff isn't me."   I told him that, in my own life, whenever I haven't leaned on God, I've found myself leaning on something or someone I'd have been better off not leaning on!

-Marianne Williamson,  The Law Of Divine Compensation

A standing ovation..................

     A story is told about Fiorello LaGuardia, who, when he was mayor of New York City during the worst days of the Great Depression and all of World War II, was called "the Little Flower" by adoring New Yorkers because he was only five foot four and always wore a carnation in his lapel.  He was a colorful character who used to ride the New York City fire trucks, raid speakeasies with the police department, take entire orphanages to baseball games, and wherever the New York newspapers were on strike, he would go on the radio and read the Sunday funnies to the kids.
     One bitterly cold night in January of 1935, the mayor turned up at a night court that served the poorest ward of the city.  LaGuardia dismissed the judge for the evening and took over the bench himself.  Within a few minutes, a tattered old woman was brought before him, charged with stealing a loaf of bread.  She told LaGuardia that her daughter's husband had deserted her, her daughter was sick, and her two grandchildren were starving.  But the shopkeeper, from whom the bread was stolen, refused to drop the charges.  "It's a bad neighborhood, Your Honor," the man told the mayor.  "She's got to be punished to teach other people around here a lesson."
     LaGuardia sighed.  He turned to the woman and said, "I've got to punish you.  The law makes no exceptions -- ten dollars or ten days in jail."  But even as he pronounced the sentence, the mayor was already reaching into his pocket.  He extracted a bill and tossed it into his famous sombrero, saying, "Here is the ten dollar fine, which I now remit;  and furthermore I am going to fine everyone in this courtroom fifty cents for living in a town where a person has to steal bread so that her grandchildren can eat.  Mr. Bailiff, collect the fines and give them to the defendant."
     So the following day the New York City newspapers reported that $47.50 was turned over to a bewildered old lady who had stolen a loaf of bread to feed her starving grandchildren, fifty cents of that amount being contributed by the red-faced grocery store owner, while some seventy petty criminals, people with traffic violations, and New York City policemen, each of whom had just paid fifty cents for the privilege of doing so, gave the mayor a standing ovation.

-Brennan Manning,  The Ragamuffin Gospel

Fifty years ago..........................

Merle Haggard.......................The Legend Of Bonnie & Clyde

Opening paragraphs..................

I'm dying, Spenser," the man said.
     I nodded, not knowing what else to say.  An early-summer rain beaded down my office window, dark gray skies hovering over Berkeley and Boylston as afternoon commuters jockeyed for position out of the city.  Their taillights cast a red glow on slick streets.  Somewhere a prowl car hit a siren, heading off to another crime.  The man sitting before me smiled and nodded, his hands withered and liver-spotted.  His name was Locke.
     "How long have we known each other?"  Locke asked.
     "A long time."

-Ace Atkins, channeling Robert B. Parker in the Spenser novel, Old Black Magic

You could even blog, if you wanted...............

"You have the freedom to change how you spend your day."

-Seth Godin, from here

On certainty and security................

“Uncertainty is the only certainty there is, and knowing how to live with insecurity is the only security.” 

-John Allen Paulos

Truth............................

          via

Another piece of advice..................

.........................................to avoid frustration, ponder, from time to time, the value to others of your output.

And at work, plenty of us, because we’re ambitious or frustrated or just because we live in a capitalist society where our worth is determined by our output, are hoping to get more done in 2019. Luckily, the Twitter feed for Inc. magazine is here for you, as earlier this week the magazine recirculated a 2017 story about getting a “fast start to your day,” gleaned from the wisdom of billionaire tech entrepreneurs. Their advice: Wake up before dawn and sacrifice your mornings to the gods of productivity.

-Rachelle Hampton, excerpted from here

Fifty years ago..........................

Manfred Mann....................................................Mighty Quinn

On the stories we tell ourselves............

"My narrative is simply my narrative, and if it's not working, it's arrogant to insist on it."

-Seth Godin, from here

Truth.............................

"No one today likes truth: utility and self interest have long ago been substituted for truth."

-Nikolai Berdyaev

Faulty parenting.................

Neither of my two adult children will accept the fact the Die Hard is a Christmas movie, even after we watched it, as a family, this evening.

I feel like such a failure.

Well, you are.......................

thanks jess

And, lo..........................

8 And there were in the same country shepherds abiding in the field, keeping watch over their flock by night.

9 And, lo, the angel of the Lord came upon them, and the glory of the Lord shone round about them: and they were sore afraid.

10 And the angel said unto them, Fear not: for, behold, I bring you good tidings of great joy, which shall be to all people.

11 For unto you is born this day in the city of David a Saviour, which is Christ the Lord.

12 And this shall be a sign unto you; Ye shall find the babe wrapped in swaddling clothes, lying in a manger.

13 And suddenly there was with the angel a multitude of the heavenly host praising God, and saying,

14 Glory to God in the highest, and on earth peace, good will toward men.

15 And it came to pass, as the angels were gone away from them into heaven, the shepherds said one to another, Let us now go even unto Bethlehem, and see this thing which is come to pass, which the Lord hath made known unto us.

-The Holy Bible, King James Version, Luke 2:8-15

Fifty years ago.........................

Glories stream............................

Jennifer Nettles...........................................Silent Night

Merry Christmas.............

..........................................................from our house to yours.

Fifty years ago............................

Perry Como.........................................................Christmas Eve

I do............................

Duty...........................

“Fear is never a good counselor and victory over fear is the first spiritual duty of man.” 

-Nicolas Berdyaev, philosopher 

thanks Tony

Dreaming.........................

Ella Fitzgerald.................................................White Christmas

KPIs...................................

46. Value wisdom over stuff, stillness over babble, investment over the quick-fix.

-Nicholas Bate from this Complete Two Score and Ten

via

Life..............................

..............................................................................its ownself

Compound............................

"Habits are the compound interest of self-improvement.  Getting 1 percent better every day counts for a lot in the long run.   Habits are  a double-edged sword.  They can work for you or against you . . . If you want better results, then forget about setting goals.  Focus on your system instead.

-James Clear,  Atomic Habits:  Tiny Changes, Remarkable Results

Fifty years ago.......................

Tony Bennett.....................Santa Claus Is Coming To Town

A very excellent Christmas present.........

.........would be for Jet Boy (or Skip) to post more often in 2019!

In praise of stress...................

But teaching kids that failures, insults, and painful experiences will do lasting danger is harmful in and of itself.  Human beings need physical and mental challenges and stressors or we deteriorate.

-Lukianoff and Haidt,  The Coddling Of The American Mind:  How Good Intentions And Bad Ideas Are Setting Up A Generation For Failure