A quick look-see at some of the music that has been important in my life might leave the suggestion that I am living in the past. So be it.
Saturday, March 26, 2016
Soundtrack of my life....................
A quick look-see at some of the music that has been important in my life might leave the suggestion that I am living in the past. So be it.
I'll remember you this way..............
Electric Light Orchestra.......................................Mr. Blue Sky
Sun is shinin' in the sky,
There ain't a cloud in sight
It's stopped rainin'
Everybody's in a play
And don't you know
It's a beautiful new day.
Runnin' down the avenue,(Pant, Pant, Pant)
See how the sun shines brightly
In the city on the streets
Where once was pity,
Mr. Blue Sky is living here today.
[Chorus:]
Mr. Blue Sky, please tell us why,
You had to hide away
For so long where did we go wrong.
Hey there Mr. Blue
We're so pleased to be with you
Look around see what you do,
Everybody smiles at you.
Hey you with the pretty face,
Welcome to the human race
A celebration Mr. Blue Sky's
Up there waitin' and today
Is the day we've waited for
[Chorus]
Mr. Blue you did it right,
But soon comes Mr. Night,
Creepin' over, now his
Hand is on your shoulder,
Never mind I'll remember you this way.
#32 on this list
A lot to lose.............................
Continuing the excerpts from Warren Buffett's testimony before the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission:
Mr. Seefer: And I understand that. I'm just asking in your opinion, is the answer to the "too big to fail" problem, make them hold more cash?
Mr. Buffett: That - the answer is - and it isn't a perfect answer - you will always have institutions too big to fail, and sometime they will fail in the next hundred years.
But you will have fewer failures if the person on top, and the board of directors who select that person and who set the terms of his or her employment, if they have a lot to lose.
And in this particular instance, the shareholders have gotten - they probably - it's well over half a trillion, and it may be approaching a trillion - they've suffered the loses, society has suffered the loses from all the disruptions they are setting in place. Directors and the CEO.
The CEOs, you know, they only have 80% of what he had before, but they're all well, wealthy, beyond the dreams of most Americans. The directors, you know, have collected their $200,000 or $300,000 a year, and they're protected by insurance.
And so the people that are in a position to make decisions day-to-day as to trading off the safety of the institution verses the chance for improving quarterly earnings or something of the sort, the need different incentives, in my view, and so far, nothing has been done on that. ...
But I think the best thing, again, if you're worrying about the Bear Stearnses of the world is to have an arrangement in place so that if they ever have to go to the federal government for help, that the CEO and his spouse come away with nothing. And I think it can be done, you know. And I think if society is required to step in an, you know, come up with all kinds of things - disrupt, you know, the lives of millions of Americans in various ways, I think there ought to be a lot of downside...This would get their attention...
Mr. Seefer: Well, then let me ask you this then: if the CEOs and their spouse -
Mr. Buffett: Yes.
Mr. Seefer: - unlucky marriage there - you know, have to give back every penny -
Mr. Buffett: Maybe the spouse would do better policing than the regulator.
A power shortage.........................?
A read-worthy essay on the future, evolution, artificial intelligence, and us pesky humans may be found here. An excerpt:
That’s a big potential roadblock for any quest for true artificial intelligence or brain-uploading machinery. Estimates of what you’d need in terms of computing power to approach the oomph of a human brain (measured by speed and complexity of operations) come with an energy efficiency budget that needs to be about a billion times better than that wall.
To put that in a different context, our brains use energy at a rate of about 20 watts. If you wanted to upload yourself intact into a machine using current computing technology, you’d need a power supply roughly the same as that generated by the Three Gorges Dam hydroelectric plant in China, the biggest in the world. To take our species, all 7.3 billion living minds, to machine form would require an energy flow of at least 140,000 petawatts. That’s about 800 times the total solar power hitting the top of Earth’s atmosphere. Clearly human transcendence might be a way off.
One step at a time.........................
"How are we going to get through this craziness?" I asked. There was silence for a moment.
"Left foot, right foot, left foot, breathe," he said.
-Anne Lamott, Plan B: Further Thoughts on Faith
The future's so bright..............
Astrophysics is just one small aspect of the fast-growing STEM sector -- science, technology, engineering and mathematics. It is also the reason why I am not in the bearish camp with those who fear that scientific breakthroughs and fast economic growth are behind us. The technology underlying so many areas is growing too rapidly to write off the long-term future of the world economy. One can't be pessimistic while seeing the pace of advancement in areas such as genomics, robotics, alternative energy, nanotechnology, oncology, materials science, wearables, 3D printing, near-field communication -- not to mention software, big data, communications and semiconductors.
The future isn’t coming, it is already here.
-Barry Ritholtz, as excerpted from here
Motleyest.............................
"You've got to love this in a God - consistently assembling the motleyest people to bring, into the lonely and frightening world, a commitment to caring and community. It is a centuries-long reality show - Moses the stutterer, Rahab the hooker, David the adulterer, Mary the homeless teenager. Not to mention all the mealy-mouthed disciples. Not to mention a raging insecure narcissist like me."
-Anne Lamott, Plan B: Further Thoughts on Faith
Friday, March 25, 2016
Like having every dream...............
Jefferson Starship..................................................Miracles
If only you believe like I believe, baby (If only you believe like I believe)
We'd get by
If only you believe in miracles, baby (If only you believe in miracles)
So would I
If only you believe like I believe, baby (If only you believe like I believe)
We'd get by
If only you believe in miracles, baby (If only you believe in miracles)
So would I
I might have to move heaven and earth
To prove it to you, baby (Baby)
So we're makin' love
And you feel the power
And I feel the power
Then there's really nothing we can't do
(You know we could, you know we could)
If we wanted to, baby
(You know we could, you know we could)
We could exist on the stars
It'd be so easy
Now, baby
All we gotta do (Baby, baby, baby, oh, baby)
Is get a little faith in you (Baby, baby)
Oh, I've been so many places
I've seen some things (Yes, I have)
I know love is the answer (Yes, it is)
Keeps holding this world together, yeah
Ain't nothing better
Ain't nothing better (Nothing's better)
And all the answers to our prayers
Hell, it's the same everywheres, baby (Just the same now)
Nothing ever breaks up the heart (Love's a game now)
Only tears give you away (Ain't it a shame now?)
Then you're right where I found ya (Oh, baby)
With my arms around ya (Oh, baby)
O-o-o-o-o-o-oh, baby
Baby, baby
Love is a magic word, ooh, yeah (Baby)
Few ever find in a lifetime
But from that very first look in your eyes
I knew you and I had but one heart (Baby)
Only our bodies were apart (It's making me crazy)
That was so easy (Baby)
So easy (Oh, baby)
I had a taste of the real world (Didn't waste a drop of it)
When I went down on you, girl
Oh, if only you believe like I believe, baby (If only you believe like I believe)
We'd get by
If only you believe in miracles, baby (If only you believe in miracles)
So would I
If only you believe like I believe, baby (If only you believe like I believe)
We'd get by
If only you believe in miracles, baby (If only you believe in miracles)
So would I
I can hear windmills and rainbows
Whenever you're talkin' to me (Never say never)
I feel like swirling and dancin'
Whenever you're walking with me (Whenever you're walking with me)
You ripple like a river when I touch you (Let me touch you)
When I pluck your body like a string (Show you what I mean)
When I start dancin' inside ya (Oh, baby)
You make me wanna sing (I love you so)
Yeah (I love you so)
Baby (I love you so)
Baby (I love you so)
Baby (I love you so)
Baby (Oh)
Oh, yeah (Oh, yeah)
All right (All right)
Baby, we're sure doin' it tonight (Baby, we're sure doin' it)
Every time you come by, let me try (Come on by)
Pretty please with sugar on it
That's how I like it, ooh
I can't even believe it with you
It's like having every dream I ever wanted come true (Dream of a lifetime)
I picked up your vibes
You know, it opened my eyes (Dream of a lifetime)
But I'm still dreamin', yeah (Hey, hey, hey, hey, hey, oh)
And you're right where I found ya (Oh, baby)
With my arms around ya (Oh, baby)
Oh, if only you believe like I believe, baby (If only you believe like I believe)
We'd get by
If only you believe in miracles, baby (If only you believe in miracles)
So would I
If only you believe like I believe, baby (If only you believe like I believe)
We'd get by
If only you believe in miracles, baby (If only you believe in miracles)
So would I
So would I
So would I
Fifty years ago.......................
Bobby Fuller Four......................................I Fought The Law
Perspective...................
There is considerable hand-wringing these days about the state of discourse in the public arena. Isn't it just awful, terrible, and unusual? Nope. From the historical perspective, it is actually not. The history major in me could offer you many examples of much worse behavior. But since I am feeling too lazy to sort it out for you right now, allow me the short-cut of directing your attention to this post at Cultural Offering.
This feels about right.....................................
In 2016 America, the deepest divide is not between Democrats and Republicans. It’s not even between conservatives and liberals. It’s between Us and Them – the people versus The Establishment.
-as excerpted from here
via
Thursday, March 24, 2016
Spengler ditches his rose-colored glasses.......
If he keeps this up, I may have to stop reading him:
"Americans aren’t spending money, except for fast food, the last affordable luxury left on many household budgets."
Full stagflation post is here.
Over and over.......................
Tommy James and the Shondells..................Crimson and Clover
Fifty years ago....................
Tommy James and the Shondells............................Hanky Panky
Wednesday, March 23, 2016
The Trump Monster and............................
..................................................................a fable for our time:
And there was afright and desperation and rending of teeth and gnashing of hair for many were the rice bowls threatened.
The darkest of horrors was that the serfs might come to choose the manner of their government. For long years the Bicephalous Party had presided over that most desirable form of democracy in which the people had no power. This laudable state they had maintained by never talking about anything of substance, such as unending wars in remote lands beyond the edges of the maps, or the importation of slaves from curious and unwholesome countries or the manufactures of all things by foreign dwarves.
The rest of Fred Reed's scurrilous commentary is here
"Quake books" and................................
.........................................mastering the lost art of reading.
"They shook my entire world and then, as it happened, were responsible for a great deal of success in my career, relationships, and my happiness."
Full post is here.
Interesting paragraphs...........................................
The Japanese government in particular is investing millions in its own studies of El Nino, and for good reason. Japan has historically been a magnet for highly destructive Pacific typhoons, storms that, along with the earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions that bring regular ruin, have helped forge the national character traits of stoicism and mutual philanthropy. Forecasting such traumatic occurrences would of course be a fine thing, for the national economy, for the nation's morale. The recent accelerating ability to forecast the eruptions of volcanoes may still not have been matched by an ability to predict earthquakes. But to balance that, a major effort is now being made in Japan to fine-tune global long-term weather forecasting, and in particular to investigate the possibilities of predicting when an El Nino - with its clustering of typhoons - is most likely to occur.
-Simon Winchester, Pacific: Silicon Chips and Surfboards, Coral Reefs and Atom Bombs, Brutal Dictators, Fading Empires, and the Coming Collision of the World's Superpowers
Long black cloud....................
Bob Dylan........................................Knockin' On Heaven's Door
On standards........................
Mr. Bondi: "Do you think if Fannie had tighter standards and tighter controls, that we could have averted a financial crisis?'
Mr. Buffett: "Well, in fact, Freddie and Fannie were in a position. Whether they were practically in that position - whether Congress would - I mean, would have tolerated them coming up with really much stricter standards, I don't think if probably could have happened.
But I'm not sure they wanted it to happen, either. I mean, they were enjoying the party, too. And they didn't think the party was going to end like this. I mean, it wasn't like somebody was thinking, 'This is going to end in the paralysis of the American economy.' You know, they just - they started believing what other people believed. It's very tough to fight that.
We will have other bubbles in the future. I mean, there's no question about it.
I don't think the President of the United States could have stopped it by rhetoric. And I think any President of the United States had said, you know, 'I am campaigning on a program of 30 percent down payments, verified income, and not more than 30...," they might not have impeached him, but they sure as hell wouldn't have reelected him."
-Warren Buffett answering more questions from the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Fifty years ago...................
On the television........................................The Green Hornet
On Moral Hazard...............
Mr. Bondi: "Would the American economy have been better off in the long run if there had been no exceptional government assistance to financial institutions? In other words, do you think we've increased the likelihood of moral hazard in the long run?"
Mr. Buffett: "No, I think the moral hazard has been misunderstood in a big way. There is no moral hazard existing with shareholders of Citigroup, with Freddie Mac, with Fannie Mae, with WaMu, with Wachovia - you just go up and down the line. I mean these people lost anywhere from 90 percent to 100 percent of their money, and the idea that they will walk away and think, 'Ah, I've been saved by the federal government.'
I think just the companies that I've named there's at least a half a trillion dollars of losses to common shareholders.
Now, there's another question with management, which we might get into later, but in terms of moral hazard, I don't even understand why people talk about that in terms of equity holders."
Mr. Bondi: "Uh-huh. Do you think we would have been better off, though, if we had not had the infusion of government assistance?"
Mr. Buffett: "I think it would be a disaster. No, it would have been the disaster of all time."
-Questions and answers at the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Tuesday, March 22, 2016
It isn't given to man to......................
Mr. Bondi: "Now, earlier you referenced the GSEs and it's been reported that in 2000 you sold nearly all of your Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shares.
What persuaded you in 2000 to think that those were no longer good investments?"
Mr. Buffett: "Well, I didn't know that they weren't going to be good investments, but I was concerned about management at both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, although our holdings were concentrated in Fannie Mae.
They were trying to - and proclaiming that they could increase earnings per share in some low double-digit range or something of the sort. And any time a large financial institution starts promising regular earnings increases, you're going to have trouble, you know?
I mean, it isn't given to man to be able to run a financial institution where different interest-rate scenarios will prevail on all of that so as to produce kind of smooth, regular earnings from a very large base to begin with; and so if people are thinking that way, they are going to do things, maybe in accounting - as it turns out to be the case in both Freddie and Fannie - but also in operations that I would regard as unsound. And I don't know when it will happen. I don't even know for sure if it will happen. It will happen eventually, if they keep up that kind of policy; and so we decided - or I just decided to get out."
-an exchange extracted from Warren Buffett's testimony to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Welcome to the club..................
Mr. Bondi: "When did you realize that there was a mortgage meltdown coming and ... as one of the purportedly wisest investors in the United States, why were you unable to spot the massive bubble growing?"
Mr. Buffett: "The answer is, the first part was not soon enough. ... But if I had seen what was coming, I would have behaved differently, including selling Moody's. So I was wrong."
-as culled from Warren Buffett's exchange with Bradley J. Bondi
On Kool-Aid drinking................
Mr. Bondi: "...we're investigating the causes of the financial crisis. And I would like to get your opinion as to whether credit rating agencies and their apparent failure to predict accurately...cause or contribute to the financial crisis?"
Mr. Buffett: "It didn't cause it, but there were a vast number of things that contributed to it. The basic cause, you know, embedded in psychology - partly in psychology and partly in reality in a growing and finally pervasive belief that house prices couldn't go down and everybody succumbed - virtually everybody succumbed to that. But that's - the only way you get a bubble is when basically a very high percentage of the population buys into some originally sound premise and - it's quite interesting how that develops - originally sound premise that becomes distorted as time passes and people forget the original sound premise and start focusing solely on the price action.
So every - the media, investors, the mortgage bankers, the American public, me, my neighbor, rating agencies, Congress - you name it - people overwhelmingly came to believe that house prices could not fall significantly. And since it was the biggest asset class in the country and it was the easiest class to borrow against, it created probably the biggest bubble in our history.
It will be a bubble that will be remembered along with the South Sea bubble and the tulip-bulb bubble."
-as excerpted from Warren Buffett's testimony in front of the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission
Having fun with pricing power.............
"Dun and Bradstreet had a very good business, and Moody's had an even better business. And basically, the single-most important decision in evaluating a business is pricing power. If you have the power to raise prices without losing business to a competitor, you've got very good business. And if you have to have a prayer session before raising prices by a tenth of a cent, then you've got a terrible business. I've been in both, and I know the difference."
-Warren Buffett, as answering a question from the U.S.A. Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission on why he had invested in Dun and Bradstreet in 1999 and 2000.
Unending.............................
-the quote comes from David Kanigan's wondrous tumblr; the photo is just another example of why the APOD site is a favorite haunt of mine.
I don't usually watch the TV news...........
..........................................but when I do, I watch this station:
Barenaked Ladies....................................................Odds Are
Fifty years ago............................
Peter & Gordon....................................................Lady Godiva
A holy curiosity.......................
"The important thing is not to stop questioning. Curiosity has its own reason for existence. One cannot help but be in awe when he contemplates the mysteries of eternity, of life, of the marvelous structure of reality. It is enough if one tries merely to comprehend a little of this mystery each day. Never lose a holy curiosity. … Don't stop to marvel."
-Albert Einstein
cartoon via
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