Picking on the really smart people, again......

"In theory, there is no difference between theory and practice. In practice, there is."
-Yogi Berra



Richard Alford mocks the "undue confidence, false precision" of economists and model makers.  Full post is here.  Excerpt is here:


"Well into 2007, economists, pundits and policymakers were confidently predicting a continuation of the Great Moderation, and many were issuing assurances that there was no housing price bubble. Does this failure reflect problems with economists, policymakers and their models? Or is the problem inherent in the nature of the economy? If the failure of mainstream models to foresee the crisis and recession is the result of economists having too much faith in a faulty model, then changing the economists or the model could rectify the problem. If, on the other hand, the nature of the macroeconomic problem is such that models that allow for forecasts and policy design with the required accuracy are impossible, than how should policy be designed, implemented, and communicated?"


It's a complex world we live in.