Abraham (Wald) is tasked with reviewing damaged planes coming back from sorties over Germany in the Second World War. He has to review the damage of the planes to see which areas must be protected even more.
Abraham finds that the fuselage and fuel system of returned planes are much more likely to be damaged by bullets or flak than the engines. What should he recommend to his superiors?
Quick Answer: Don't arm the places that sustained the most damage on planes that came back. By virtue of the fact that these planes came back, these parts of the planes can sustain damage.
If an essential part of the plane comes back consistently undamaged, like the engines in the previous example, that's probably because all the planes with shot-up engines don't make it back.
The statistical math (that us History majors find incomprehensible) that backed up his answer can be found by scrolling through this document. Yeow. Smart people.
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