"My advice has been constant -- avoid those who are self-confident of view and who provide ready explanations to daily market moves."
-Doug Kass, as linked from here.
I am the lucky recipient of the Business Digest, a daily one-page fax with interesting quotes, information, and - my favorite - a summary called "The Market." "The Market" typically describes what happened in the stock market the day before, and then provides a handy rationale for whatever happened. For instance:
"Wall Street rallied higher on Monday as a decline in the
U. S. dollar against the euro eased some worries over how
a robust greenback might erode the earnings of multinationals."
They make the market seem so rational and logical. Call me skeptical. The history major in me is fairly certain that hindsight is not 20/20. I'm with Doug Kass on this one.