Saturday, March 31, 2018

Calibration and accountability.................

We don't win bets by being in love with our own ideas.  We win bets by relentlessly striving to calibrate our beliefs and predictions about the future to more accurately represent the world.   In the long run, the more objective person will win against the more biased person.  In that way, betting is a form of accountability to accuracy.  Calibration requires an open-minded consideration of diverse points of view and alternative hypotheses.

-Annie Duke,  Thinking In Bets:  Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts

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