A key step in the right direction............

     Charles Ellis once said, "Forecasting the future of any variable is difficult, forecasting the interacting futures of many changing variables is even more difficult, and estimating how other expert investors will interpret such complex changes is extraordinarily difficult."  It can make your head hurt just thinking about it, but its true.  No one is ever going to completely understand the exact forces that drive the markets for the simple fact that no one can predict the future.  A willingness to admit what it is that you don't know frees you up from the illusion of certainty in your predictive skills.

-Ben Carlson,  A Wealth of Common Sense