Housel on risk.................

Risk gets ugly when you think it requires a specific forecast before you start preparing for it. It’s better to have expectations that risk will arrive but you don’t know when or where than to rely exclusively on forecasts – almost all of which are either nonsense or about things that are well known.

Two things happen when you’re caught off guard. One is that you’re vulnerable, with no protection against what you hadn’t considered. The other is that surprise shakes your beliefs in a way that leaves you paranoid and pessimistic.

-Morgan Housel, as extracted from here