Sunday, January 5, 2020

Non-prediction predictions............

All ten of these will likely be true over the course of 2020.  A sample or three:

2. Something will happen that doesn’t make any sense at all. There’s sure to be something that catches investors off-guard in 2020. Something is bound to defy expectations whether it involves geopolitics, irrational market movements, corporate takeovers, huge gainers, huge losers, or any number of crazy news, events, or performance moves. I’ve learned I’ll almost always be surprised by markets to some degree. So the trick is to not be surprised that you’re surprised because these things can be completely random at times.

4. There will be other people getting richer than you. Fear and greed often influence investors into making mistakes with their money. But envy is probably a more destructive force. Seeing your peers, friends, or even perfect strangers making money faster than you can cause some strange emotions and reactions. This is true in down markets as well. Someone is bound to put on the right hedge or trade at an opportune time. When that happens you will always regret not doing the same

10. Everything will look obvious after the fact. The fact that stocks have rocketed higher and interest rates fell like a rock in 2019 feels pretty obvious in hindsight. Who couldn’t have seen this coming what with all the central bank easing? Hindsight makes the past look more explainable than it actually was while uncertainty seems to always be at an all-time high about what’s going to happen in the future. But that’s always been the case and will always be the case. No one can predict the future but we can all craft beautiful narratives about the past. Whatever 2020 has in store for us, it will only be clear with the benefit of hindsight.

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