Learning might proceed in a more ideal way if life were more like chess than poker. The connection between outcome quality and decision quality would be clearer because there would be less uncertainty. The challenge is that any single outcome can happen for multiple reasons. The unfolding future is a big data dump that we have to sort and interpret. And the world doesn't connect the dots for us between outcomes and causes. ... When the future coughs on us, it is hard to tell why.
-Annie Duke, Thinking In Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts
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