Take a guess at how this turns out........

In 1985 Dr. Philip Tetlock embarked on a mission to find out whether experts could predict future events. Over a span of 20 years, he interviewed 280 experts about their level of confidence that a certain outcome would come to pass. Forecasts were solicited across a wide variety of domains, including economics, politics, climate, military strategy, financial markets, legal opinions, and other complex fields with uncertain outcomes. In all, Tetlock accumulated 28,000 forecasts from these experts.

You may grade the accuracy of your guess here.