As the new year looms and the prediction industry gears up, you might consider reading this Morgan Housel essay with 12 noteworthy points on the subject.
"But prediction is hard. Either you know that or you’re in denial about it. A lot of the reason it’s hard is because the visible stuff that happens in the world is a small fraction of the hidden stuff that goes on inside people’s heads. The former is easy to overanalyze; the latter is easy to ignore."
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