But remember what Daniel Kahneman says. “The correct lesson to learn from surprises is that the world is surprising.” . . .
Studying history can feel like intellectual candy that offers no practical use to investors who are paid to foresee the future. But once you accept how fragile our assumptions of the future are, you realize that forecasts are the real fluff and history is where the meat is.
-Morgan Housel, from this post
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