Tuesday, February 16, 2021


       Psychologists have a name for our tendency to confuse our own perspective with something more universal:  it's called 'naive realism', the sense that we are seeing reality as it truly is, without filters or errors.  Naive realism can lead us badly astray when we confuse our personal perspective on the world with some universal truth.  We are surprised when an election goes against us: everyone in our social circle agreed with us, so why did the nation vote otherwise?  Opinion polls don't always get it right, but I can assure you they have a better track record of predicting elections than simply talking to your friends.

-Tim Harford, How to Make the World Add Up:  Ten Rules for Thinking Differently About Numbers

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