Been in the..........................

................real estate brokerage business for a long time.  I'm not sure they've thought this through:

The 6% commission, a standard in home purchase transactions, is no more. . . .

Although it’s unclear what the future of the housing market will look like, Miller said he expected homebuying to pick up somewhat as costs fall dramatically for homebuyers.

Back story here.

Most pundits seemed to think that low interest rates helped the buyers.  Strikes us that low interest rates actually helped the sellers.   

Most buyers around here seem to think mostly in terms of their monthly mortgage payment.  A monthly payment of $2,000 will amortize a $360,000 mortgage at 3% interest over twenty years.   At 6% interest, that payment will only support a mortgage $280,000.

In a hot and competitive real estate market, which much of the country has experienced lately (mostly because of a shortage of supply of housing), who do you think reaps the reward of the extra $80,000 available mortgage financing that 3% interest provided?  Why do you think housing prices got so high so quickly?  You are kidding yourself if you don't think that part of the housing "affordability" problem was caused by ten years of 3% mortgage money.  When it comes to real estate, low interest rates are inflationary, and that favors sellers.

A similar thing will likely happen with the real estate commission issue.  If commissions fall, in a hot and competitive market, the buyer will not be seeing the benefit.  It will likely go to the seller.  All other things being equal, the buyer working with a broker who will work for a reduced fee, can now afford to offer more.  If the supply problem ever gets fixed and a "buyers' market" emerges, then it might be different.  In the meanwhile, two people can't save the same reduction in fees. (This assumes there will actually be a reduction in fees).  It will benefit either the buyer or the seller.  In a "sellers market," bet on the seller.

Time will tell, but my bet is that pundits thinking changing the long-established commission structure will help buyers, in what is still a "sellers' market," are fooling themselves - and the public.