........................with Barry Ritholtz:
We spend too much time worrying about big, rare events, while ignoring the mundane everyday factors that are far more dangerous.
On a long enough timescale, everything is transitory. As we work our way through the detritus and minutia of life, we should not lose sight of that.
Those who are least knowledgeable are often the most cocksure about their own skills, abilities, and beliefs. This is an especially expensive error to make in trading and investing.
Once you recognize how little the experts (and the rest of us) know, you come to recognize how much humility investing requires. Accept the wisdom of recognizing our collective ignorance, and you will soon see how much better off you will be then . . .
Success is an iterative process—we often overlook the misses, the almosts, the faceplants, and the failures that precede victory.
Whatever my views are about the economy, markets, my portfolio, etc., I am always ready to discard them as I amass sufficient evidence my beliefs are wrong. "Strong opinions weakly held" means reversing your priors when necessary, cutting losses quickly, and never marrying any holding or belief system—ever.
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