The problem with predictions.......................

The iPod has been regarded by a lot of pundits as Apple getting lucky, a fluke, a one-shot.  When Apple entered the cutthroat cell phone market, it was predicted the iPhone would flop.  Microsoft's Steve Ballmer famously said it would never get any market share.  But the iPhone was a hit from the start, and Apple used its old playbook of rapidly adding features and models.
     Apple released the iPhone in mid-2007.  By the end of the year, 3.7 million iPhones had been sold.  By the first quarter of 2008, the sales volume of iPhones exceeded sales of Apple's entire Mac line.  And by the end of 2008, the company was selling three times as many iPhones as it was selling Macs.  Revenue and profits were through the roof.
-Leander Kahney,  Jony Ive:  The Genius Behind Apple's Greatest Products

Fourth Quarter 2013 cell phone operating system market share

Steve Ballmer video interview in which he expresses love for Microsoft's plan for succeeding in the world of cell phones: