wrong and yet confident.................

     Being wrong and yet confident is a good description of the human condition.  And it isn't hard to understand why we are this way.  Our consistent wrongness has a lot to do with the fact that the world is a complicated place and it is hard to predict what will happen next.  Yet we are continually forced to predict the future in both big and small ways because otherwise we wouldn't know what we should be doing at any given moment.  We get the easy stuff right, such as knowing we'll want a beverage if we eat pretzels.  But when it comes to big, complicated, long-term predictions, we're not equipped with the psychic powers required to know how the future turns out.  We also can't stop ourselves from imagining we do know how things will work out.  I'm not the exception.  Neither are you.
     
-Scott Adams, Loserthink:  How Untrained Brains Are Ruining America