First, risk is highest when everything seems perfect.
Second, the conditions that create prosperous outcomes often plant the seeds of their own unwindings.
Third, risk happens fast.
Fourth, boring is often a feature, not a flaw. Leaving money on the table isn’t a bad thing if it provides a margin for error.
Fifth, there is never one single catalyst to any existential risk.
Sixth, the biggest risks, by their very nature, can’t be forecasted.
Seventh, when you have already achieved “success,” no terminal tail risk is worth it, regardless of the probability.
Eighth, the biggest risks always look obvious in hindsight, yet we never catch them beforehand.
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