Friday, January 6, 2012

Mobility...............



















It probably is a mistake to compare the Great Recession with the
Great Depression, so.......I am not going to.  But, we would be
remiss in not pointing out one of the Great Differences.  One of the
most re-played images of the 1930's was the Okies, fleeing the
dust bowl, heading for their grapes of wrath future in California.
It was almost a mass migration, as folks and their families fled
from territories of no hope to a distant land of maybe some hope. 
The country was mobile.  "The transient knew in his bones
that things were no better ahead than they had been behind,
but somehow the movement itself seemed positive. It was
something, however a hopeless thing, to do." (excerpted)

Fast forward 80 years.  Unemployment and under employment
are the talked about problems of this day.  What is missing is the
migration, the movement from areas of no work to areas with
some work.  According to my favorite economic futurist Jeff
Thredgold, "manufacturers cannot fill 600,000 skilled
positions, or 5% of all current manufacturing jobs....".  One
of the reasons given is the mis-match in location, skilled workers
not living in proximity to where their skills are needed.  The
culprit - the moribund residential real estate market and the
amazing number of people (25%) who owe more than their home
is worth.  Just when mobility would give hope, "the movement
of Americans is at its lowest level since World War II." 
Blame it on the real estate.

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