however....................

 

However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.

-attributed to Winston Churchill

on processes..................

 

     The key to focusing more on process is to understand that good outcomes follow good processes.  Without understanding the underlying process, good outcomes could just as likely be due to dumb luck as to skill.

     You should be reminded of this every time you read the disclaimer "past performance is no guarantee of future results."  What you are actually seeing is an admission of random outcomes.  When past performance is the result of luck, then it provides zero insight into what future results might look like.

-Barry Ritholtz, How Not To Invest: The Ideas, Numbers, and Behaviors That Destroy Wealth—And How To Avoid Them

Un......No............

Work can be part of your financial independence. Like other aspects of your financial plan, you just need some rules in place to guide your actions so it doesn’t become all-consuming.

Here are some work rules I would institute in this situation:

• The no assholes rule. Only work with people you like and respect.
• The no stress rule. Don’t keep working if it stresses you out all the time. You’re not wealthy if your work causes constant worry and anxiety.
• The no rule. Financial independence should make it easier to say no to invitations, projects, and events you don’t want to do. When you’re younger sometimes you have to suck it up. That shouldn’t be the case when you’re working by choice.
• The no regrets rule. Don’t keep working if it makes you miss out on family stuff. No one ever says I wish I would have worked longer hours on their deathbed.

-Ben Carlson, from here

The fifty year mortgage..................

 

Been reading that the idea of a 50-year mortgage is being bandied about.  Lots of commentary about why this is a horrible idea.  The amount of extra interest the home buyer would pay—if they kept the mortgage for all fifty years—over a more traditional loan is staggering.  But, while it is not for everyone, it could have its uses.  It is essentially an interest-only loan.  If your intent is to only live in a place for a few years, and you believe housing prices will still be inflating, then it could be a very viable option.  Just be careful to avoid any pre-payment penalties.  It is certainly not a panacea for the affordability problems we are currently facing.

On Social Security................

 

Ben Carlson takes an interesting look (with lots of charts and graphs) at us older Americans and our real estate, stock portfolios, and social security checks.

However, it’s crucial to recognize that Social Security remains a vital financial asset for a large number of Americans.

I hope we don’t screw it up someday.

Ed. Note:  Started getting Social Security checks at age 62.5.  As checks go, they are not very large.  Was only a W-2 employee for a handful of years.  By my Sweetie's calculation, if I live past 80, my net will be less than if I had waited longer to start collecting.  But, at age 62.5, we still had kids in college.  However meager the checks were, they came in handy then—the time value of money counts.

Ben Carlson is genuinely.....................

 

..........a smart guy, but I disagree with him on this one:

"The stock market is the only place where anyone can invest in human ingenuity."

Not universally true....................

 

The more the Internet exposes people to new points of view, the angrier people get that different views exist.

-Benedict Evans

Outcomes.......................

 

The problem with democracy is that it does not always produce the outcome you want.

-Jonathan Turley, from this opinion

thanks Chris

I never seem to be reading..............................

..................................what Tyler Cowen reads.

forces at work..................

 

     All art is a form of poetry.  It's always changing, never fixed.  We may think we know what a piece we made means, yet over time that interpretation may change.  The creator stops being the creator once they finish the work.  They then become the viewer.  And the viewer can bring as much of their own meaning to a piece as the creator.

     We will never know a work's true meaning.  It's helpful to remember that there are forces at work beyond our comprehension.  Let's make are, and let others make the stories.

-Rick Rubin, The Creative Act: A Way of Being

A public service...........................

 

.......................................announcement.

There is some truth in this..................

 

Most of us are making it up as we go, moving the goalposts continually and never settling on a specific definition of money or happiness.

-Ben Carlson, as extracted from here

according to history, anyway...............

 

Rebellion is treason until successful . . .

-Salmon P. Chase

lazy jugglers.......................

 

That’s because they understand what the work involves, and they don’t confuse effort with results.

-Seth Godin, from here

The 20-5-3 rule.............................

 

......for experiencing the healing power of nature.

To buy or not to buy.....................?

 Offering advice on the home buying process is even harder than offering investment advice without more context. Investing is personal but your living situation has even more idiosyncratic risks involved.

-Ben Carlson, from this post

For a wealth management kind of guy he has a pretty good feel for real estate.   Will admit to some surprise at seeing his chart of the gross profit margins for the largest production builders.  If we knew they were making that much money we would have charged them more for the building lots we sold them.

On winning and losing................

 Some days I feel like I have a really strong grasp of the situation and somedays everything seems upside-down. And again, I eat, sleep and breathe this stuff. I have global strategists and chief economists from Fidelity, JPMorgan, Vanguard, BlackRock, etc literally on speed dial. It doesn’t matter. If anything, the proximity to all this intel is probably even worse for most people because of how delusional we can become when we think we know something.

-Josh Brown, from here

Frugal versus..............................

 ..........................................independent.

I tried that strategy......................

..........................but got different results:

Late in life, Churchill would claim that "I gained a lot by not overworking my brain when I was young."  Typically, he tried to make a plus out of a minus, arguing in 1921 that "it is a mistake to read too many good books when quite young. . . . Young people should be careful in reading, as old people in eating their food.  They should not eat too much.  They should chew it well." 

-Thomas E. Ricks:  Churchill & Orwell: The Fight for Freedom

Despite all the evidence.....................

......................I still choose to be optimistic.

The whole country is becoming the DMV.

-from this manifesto of pessimism

via