When there are multiple solutions to a problem, choose the simplest one.
The greatest enemy of a good plan is the dream of a perfect plan.” Stick to the good plan. Traditional.
It takes wisdom to know what we don’t know.
So please don't forget that considering the probabilities of future returns only begins the decision-making process. Decisions have consequences. If the consequences of being badly wrong about future returns would imperil your financial future, be conservative.
-John C. Bogle, as excerpted from The Little Book of Common Sense Investing