Thursday, February 6, 2025
Wednesday, February 5, 2025
landmines.......................
Investing would be a lot easier if there were no uncertainty. If someone could just kindly tell you where all of the landmines are buried ahead of time, you could side them completely and go on with your life.
Life doesn’t work like that, unfortunately. Uncertainty is always at all-time highs because no one knows what’s coming next. The hard part is there is this human need for control in life, even if that control is an illusion.
You have no control over what happens with taxes, trade, tariffs, the Fed, interest rates, economic growth, inflation, earnings or stock market returns. None. So it’s really your reaction to the uncontrollable events that determines your success or failure as an investor.
-Ben Carlson, from here
man, this sounds familiar...............
Williams also got the politicians. The Junto consistently elected Federalists to local seats—often by playing dirty. One corrupt practice of the era was called "making votes." Since many people couldn't meet the state's stringent property requirements, Federalist attorneys created fake deeds that voters presented to poll inspectors. "In this cursed crooked world," Williams wrote Ebenezer Foote, "if our institutions are worth preserving, we must preserve them by use of such means as alone can sustain them."
-James M. Bradley, Martin Van Buren: America's First Politician
unflagging diligence...............
Making votes was one example of how corruption evolved—one could even say became democratized—in post-Revolutionary New York. Given that land was no longer the sole path to wealth, politics became another pipeline. Elites funded newspapers that promoted their interests. They bribed legislators in exchange for votes on banks, turnpikes, and chartered corporations. Van Buren saw this "implied alliance" between monied interests and the state as a means of restoring colonial-era oligarchy under a different guise. Columbia's "money power" was, he believed, the essence of Federalism, whose raison d'etre was to "combat the democratic spirit of the country . . . an object which it has pursued with unflagging diligence."
-James M. Bradley, Martin Van Buren: America's First Politician
still.............................
This idea was at the core of Van Buren's worldview. It would never change. Collusion between government and private interests, he believed, would always enrich the few at the expense of the many.
-James M. Bradley, Martin Van Buren: America's First Politician
separation..........................
. . . Separation between God or reality and yourself is brought about by you, by the mind that clings to the known, to certainty, to security. This separation cannot be bridged over, there is no ritual, no discipline, no sacrifice that can carry you across it; there is no savior, no Master, no guru who can lead you to the real or destroy the separation. The division is not between the real and yourself; it is in yourself.
-J. Krishnamurti, The Book of Life
delight.........................
26. A man's true delight is to do the things he was made for. He was made to show goodwill to his kind, to rise about the promptings of his senses, to distinguish appearances from realities, and to pursue the study of universal Nature and her works.
-Marcus Aurelius, Meditations: Book Eight
Monday, February 3, 2025
Tariffs.............................
I'm probably wrong about all this, but methinks he mis-reads Trump.
Tariff wars are the measles of international economics—juvenile, contagious and inherently self-defeating.
-Roger Lowenstein, from here
-Roger Lowenstein, from here
A quick review of history shows Lowenstein is likely correct about tariff wars being bad from an economic perspective. But....it looks to me that Trump is using his willingness to unilaterally impose tariffs - on our allies as well as our foes - to get his way in international politics. Economics has nothing to do with it. But, I'm probably wrong.
On friendship...............
Wishing to be friends is quick work, but friendship is a slow-ripening fruit.
Understanding the concept..............
..........................................of enough.
The perfect level of wealth is the one you’re content with.
just do it..............................
Almost nobody wants to hear the real answer to the question of how to spend more of your finite time doing things that matter to you, which involves no system. The answer is: you just do them. You pick something you genuinely care about, and then, for at least a few minutes—a quarter of an hour, say—you do some of it. Today. It really is that simple. Unfortunately, for many of us, it also turns out to be one of the hardest things in the world.
-Oliver Burkeman, Meditations for Mortals: Four Weeks to Embrace Your Limitations and Make Time for What Counts
Die empty................................
The most valuable real estate in the world is the graveyard. There lie millions of half-written books, ideas never launched, and talents never developed. Most people die with everything still in them.
The way to live is to create. Die empty. Get every idea out of your head and into reality.
-Derek Sivers, How To Live: 27 conflicting answers and one weird conclusion
Sunday, February 2, 2025
nourish............................
He admonished "young men of genius and ambition" seeking fame, money, and power—men much like himself—to nourish the mind first. Van Buren's successes "would have been much greater and more substantial if . . . I had first acquired a sound education and stored my mind with useful knowledge" as opposed to the lawyer's arsenal of facts, rulings, and precedents.
-James M. Bradley, Martin Van Buren: America's First Politician
purpose........................
One day,
your story will end
and all the choices you made will be frozen
like an insect in the amber of history.
your story will end
and all the choices you made will be frozen
like an insect in the amber of history.
Friend, this isn't meant to be grim.
Just a reminder that you are building something that
will one day be
whole and complete,
So, build with purpose.
Jarod K. Anderson, "End Point"
I've always believed in it.........
The
“great man” theory of history lost favor a century ago, and for decades
university faculty have found it quaint, vulgar, or problematic. Like other
ideas that right-thinking people long ago discarded, its disreputable status
hasn’t stopped many from believing in it anyway.
Saturday, February 1, 2025
Ah, history..............................
The notion of a legitimate, loyal opposition had yet to take root. Schooled in the Revolution, each camp had a warrior's mentality. They argued that their rival's success jeopardized the nation's existence. They deemed the opposition not only wrongheaded but sinister, corrupt, even treasonous. Republicans accused Federalists of advocating a British-like monarchy. Federalists countered that Republicans sympathized with the French Revolution's violent radicalism. As strong as these passions were, even the most doctrinaire partisans thought the newfound party mania was temporary. They believed that the new constitutional order of separation of powers would stabilize government and cool men's fervency.
-James M. Bradley, Martin Van Buren: America's First Politician
Victor Davis Hanson................
.....................always worthy of a look:
Last, Europe is mentally worn out by the war, and increasingly reneging on its once-boastful unqualified support for Ukraine, as it hopes the demonic Trump can both end the hated war and be hated for ending it. . . .
Trump’s success in resetting the United States will hinge not merely on outwitting the desperation of his enemies, but also on navigating the paradoxes of implementing his own maga agenda.
a potion.......................
I will reveal to you a love potion, without medicine, without herbs, without any witch's magic; if you want to be loved, then love.
-attributed to Hecato of Rhodes
Friday, January 31, 2025
self-education......................
Knowing is not enough; we must apply what we have learned. Willing is not enough: we must do.
-attributed to Bruce Lee
Bubble watch...........................
Two years ago everyone was convinced we were going into a recession. It was the most over-forecasted recession of all-time that never happened.
Radical.....................
....................The Office of Crisis Identification.
7. Finally, recognize that the job of an OCI is counter intuitive. It is to follow the method of hockey star Wayne Gretsky and skate to where the puck will be, not where it is. Traditionally, there is little, or no recognition given for preventing crises, and yet those bold actions are deserving of honor.
Thursday, January 30, 2025
Wednesday, January 29, 2025
Got that right...............
Unlike his contemporaries, he did not consider the human animal the pinnacle of nature’s imagination. “Never say higher or lower,” he scribbled in the margin of a book, arguing with the author. “Say more complicated.”
DeepSeek anyone................?
At the risk of repeating myself ad nauseam, this is as good a time as any to remind ourselves how little we know about the present and how completely unexpected events can be in the future.
-Barry Ritholtz, from here
Certain......................
I will never be certain about the future. I’ve read too much about the past to be confident about the future. History is full of unpredictable events so the only thing I am confident about is that the future will be full of them too.
For us aficionados of Southern Rock.........
............................Any Major Dude With Half A Heart posts his Volume 2 mix tape. As a public service, Volume 1 is here.
Happy Birthday Sweetie...........................
Tuesday, January 28, 2025
rearranged their brains...............
I've come to know a lot of extremely successful people in my life, and while their temperaments run the gamut—lovable, aloof, enigmatic, even eccentric—they all have one thing in common. They think differently than most people. All of them, to a person, have rearranged their brains to prevail at achieving big goals in turbulent environments where conventional thinking often fails.
-Brad Jacobs, How to Make a Few Billion Dollars
Checking in with................................
................................................Julian
Who knows but they serve as
a useful reminded about (a) the mystery of life and (b) the limited time we’ve
left — and my life appears to be racing faster and faster right now and I decry
the fact that so much of it has been riven with the dread and despair about
doing meaningless, repetitive work.
manage.......................
That orientation is a spirit; a process or pattern that inhabits us, piques our interest, directs our intention, and motivates our action. What do we want to happen there, in our gardens, if and when we get it right? We may be incapable of tending the whole world, but we can manage our own small private natural spaces, and that is far from nothing.
-Jordan B. Peterson, We Who Wrestle with God
born to thrive.....................
Our muscles are prompted to grow by failure,
healing from countless micro-injuries.
healing from countless micro-injuries.
Our minds, science, and technology
are similarly nourished by defeat.
are similarly nourished by defeat.
We are creatures born to thrive
on the borderlands of ruin.
on the borderlands of ruin.
Home is a valley between saw-toothed peaks of loss.
Here we sow failure and harvest miracles
Here we sow failure and harvest miracles
Jarod K. Anderson, "Losing"
Monday, January 27, 2025
senses......................
And contemplation, I come to see, does not in any case mean closing your eyes so much as opening them, to the glory of everything around you. Coming to your senses, by getting out of your head.
-Pico Iyer, Aflame: Learning from Silence
delivery..................................
Someone must have brought her makeup supplies, or she had ordered them in. Maybe Uber delivered cosmetics now the way it delivered everything else except good government.
-Mike Lupica, Hot Property
readily.......................
Lead me, Zeus, and you too, Destiny,
To whatever your decrees have assigned me.
I follow readily, but it I chose not,
Wretched though I am, I must follow still.
Fate guides the willing, but drags the unwilling.
On various acting individuals.........
Philosophers had long since been eager to ascertain the ends which God or Nature was trying to realize in the course of human history. They searched for the law of mankind's destiny and evolution. But even those thinkers whose inquiry was free from any theological tendency failed utterly in these endeavors because they were committed to a faulty method. They dealt with humanity as a whole or with other holistic concepts like nation, race, or church. They set up quite arbitrarily the ends to which the behavior of such wholes is bound to lead. But they could not satisfactorily answer the question regarding what factors compelled the various acting individuals to behave in such a way that the goal aimed at by the whole's inexorable evolution was obtained.
-Ludwig Von Mises, Human Action: A Treatise on Economics
to heal........................
In order to heal the stark divisions in our country, we need to approach one another with compassion and understanding. It’s baffling to see how many members of both parties have never taken the time to understand the other point of view and learned to say, “I disagree, but I understand.” This is vital for the future of constructive discourse in our nation.
Christine Schueckler, from here
Sunday, January 26, 2025
on winging it...................
You might believe you need more experience or qualifications in order to feel confident among your peers, but the truth is that even the most experienced and qualified people feel as though they're winging it much of the time—and that if you're ever going to make you unique contribution to the world, you'll probably have to do it in a state of feeling unprepared.
-Oliver Burkeman, Meditations for Mortals
fear....................
We can easily forgive a child who is afraid of the dark; the real tragedy of life is when men are afraid of the light.
too.....................
In any case, I've never wanted to be part of any group of believers. The globe is too wide, too various, to assume one knows it all.
-Pico Iyer, Aflame: Learning from Silence
He wasn't always right..........
After two delightful days, Van Buren told Jefferson that he had to return to Washington for a committee meeting. A disappointed Jefferson told him not to fuss over dreary state affairs. Punctuality, he said, was "a losing business."
-James M. Bradley, Martin Van Buren: America's First Politician
without apology......................
Van Buren's wooing of Jefferson captured the changing mores in US politics. The Revolutionary Era system of deference was rapidly crumbling. In most states, property qualifications were no longer a prerequisite for voting. A growing number of Americans—all white men, of course—were enfranchised and participating in the political process. The forty-one-year-old Van Buren typified this brash new style of egalitarian politics. He played the game of politics to win elections and build power, and he pursued those goals without apology.
-James M. Bradley, Martin Van Buren: America's First Politician
fraternizing.............................
Levelheaded and calm, he rarely lost his cool in the company of others. He spurned codes of honor. He ignored insults. He fraternized with his enemies, and even enjoyed their company. At a time when political rivals still settled their differences on the dueling ground, Van Buren's example of courtesy toward the opposition set an important example in establishing some semblance of a peaceful republic.
-James M. Bradley, Martin Van Buren: America's First Politician
About that village.............
The gullibility, and indeed ignorance, of contemporary governments and leaders about the intent, hatred, ruthlessness, and capability of their enemies are not surprising. The retreat to comfortable nonchalance and credulousness, often the cargo of affluence and leisure, is predictable given unchanging human nature, despite the pretensions of a postmodern technologically advanced global village.
-Victor Davis Hanson, The End of Everything: How Wars Descend into Annihilation
Saturday, January 25, 2025
Can I get an Amen...........................?
“At a basic level, governing is about taking care of businesses and families,” she explained to me recently. “It all comes down to raising the quality of life.”
-Joel Kotkin, from here
peace from............................
. . . he came to see that success might be another word for peace and peace, at heart, for freedom from senseless striving.
-Pico Iyer, Aflame: Learning from Silence
Some truth here....................
He is a powerful figure, but he is also a vehicle for the Normals, at home and abroad, who have finally had enough.
the power lies within.................
47. If you are distressed by anything external, the pain is not due to the thing itself but to your own estimate of it; and this you have the power to revoke at any moment. If the cause of the trouble lies in your own character, set about reforming your principles; who is there to hinder you?
-Marcus Aurelius, Meditations: Book Eight
Helping me.............................
..............in many ways, including the leasing of office space:
People are social beings, not mere transaction devices or vending machines. They seek to connect with others and to find a higher purpose . . .
Friday, January 24, 2025
a curious thing.........................
One of the curious things about political opinions is how often the same people line up on the opposite sides of different issues. The issues themselves may have no intrinsic connection with each other. They may range from military spending to drug laws to monetary policy to education. Yet the same familiar faces can be found glaring at each other from opposite sides of the political fence, again and again. It happens too often to be coincidence and it is too uncontrolled to be a plot. A closer look at the arguments on both sides often shows that they are reasoning from fundamentally different premises. These different premises—often implicit—are what provide the consistency behind the repeated opposition of individuals and groups on numerous, unrelated issues. They have different visions of how the world works.
-Thomas Sowell, A Conflict of Visions: Ideological Origins of Political Struggles
Thursday, January 23, 2025
Opening paragraphs.................
It was early February and snowing again in Boston. I felt as if it had been snowing since Thanksgiving. Or perhaps since the autumn equinox. The TV meteorologists, talking excitedly every night about more record snowfall numbers, and about ten more inches than we'd gotten ten years ago, continued to treat the whole thing like porn.
-Mike Lupica, channeling his inner Robert B. Parker, Hot Property: A Spenser Novel
About perfection................
. . . it's precisely because you'll never produce perfect work that you might as well get on with doing the best work you can . . . There are no guarantees—except the guarantee that holding back from life instead is a recipe for anguish.
-Oliver Burkeman, Meditations for Mortals
hangs.......................
Everything hangs on one's thinking . . . a man is as unhappy as he has convinced himself he is.
The James Webb Space Telescope..................
............................................continues to surprise. Hate it when our "models" don't work:
They contain a significant amount of nitrogen, far more than what we observe in our Sun, while most other metals are present in lower quantities. This suggests there were processes at play in the early universe we don’t yet fully understand.
JWST has shown our models of how stars drive the chemical evolution of galaxies are still incomplete, meaning we still don’t fully understand the conditions that led to our existence.
Wednesday, January 22, 2025
Opening paragraphs......................
Flying in January should be a violation of the Codex. Between the howling storm and the incessant fog in my goggles, I can't see shit as we cut through the blustering snow squall above the mountains near Basgiath. Hoping we're almost through the worst of it, I grip the pommels of my saddle with gloved hands and hold tight.
-Rebecca Yarros, Onyx Storm
Coyote Blog.....................
.........................................is back in business. Welcome back, Warren. You were missed.
Sunday, January 19, 2025
Saturday, January 18, 2025
Don't always read what's on Vox...........
.........but sometimes their stuff is pretty good. To wit:
But in both cases, the president and his allies in Congress made a conscious choice, for good or ill. What stands out about Biden is the degree to which he simply refused to choose at all.
Friday, January 17, 2025
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