Wednesday, August 28, 2013

The problem with having $70 billion to invest...

The Trend Czar opens with this:

"There’s an estimated $70 billion in institutional capital wanting to find a home in real estate, but unable to get in the door. Meanwhile, hundreds of wannabe managers and partnerships try to raise more money when managers and operators with secured commitments have trouble finding sound investments… The top markets appear too pricey, everywhere else appears too risky, especially the further out in the suburbs you look."

..........and offers this analysis:

"Essentially, government monetary policy (low interest rates and bond buying) as well as stimulus spending averted a crash, stabilized the economy, and enabled a very modest recovery. Many investors and their lenders were spared Armageddon as a result, but propped-up property values are still just that—artificially propped up by all the rescue money pushed into the system. If any of these supports are removed too soon, investors should realize the fragile markets could collapse since the economy is not producing enough demand for space on its own. And what’s too soon—certainly not yet, and that’s five years after Bear Stearns and Lehman. As a result, property values really have no business appreciating much more—they need to find their true levels, which are probably lower—care to see what happens if interest rates were to normalize?"

Your faithful blogger has been investing in real estate for a long time, and plans on continuing to do so for the balance of his allotted time on our happy planet.   My advantage over the Trend Czar, and it is a big one, is that I don't have anywhere near $70 billion to invest.  Plus, I'm in the game for the actual investment, not for the fees generated by creating and/or selling said investment.

Recently, this blog offered a series of 33 Guidelines for investing in real estate.   The big Wall Street and institutional types would probably snicker if they read it, but there is a whole world of investing that doesn't include mega-bucks.  That world is doing just fine thank you.

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