Professor Philip Tetlock has spent most of his career studying experts, self-proclaimed or otherwise. A big takeaway from his research is how awful so many experts are at predicting politics and the economy. Given that track record, will people ever choose to ignore the experts? "No way," Tetlock once said. "We need to believe we live in a predictable, controllable world, so we turn to authoritative-sounding people, who promise to satisfy that need."
The inability to forecast the past has not impact on our desire to forecast the future. Certainty is so valuable that we'll never give up the quest for it, and most people couldn't get out of bed in the morning if they were honest about how uncertain the future is.
-Morgan Housel, Same as Ever: A Guide to What Never Changes
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