Whatever success I've had has been more due to my knowing how to deal with what I don't know than anything I know. Betting on the future is betting on probabilities and nothing is certain, not even the probabilities. That's just the way it is. While what I've given you up until this point is what I believe I know about the future based on my reasoning about the past, what I want to pass along that is probably more important is how I make decisions in life and in the markets based on what I don't know. In a nutshell, here's what I try to do:
* Know all the possibilities, think about the worst-case scenarios and then find ways to eliminate the intolerable ones.
* Diversify.
* Put deferred gratification ahead of immediate gratification so you will be better off in the future.
* Triangulate among the smartest people possible.
Ray Dalio, Principles for Dealing with The Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail
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